New Polling in AZ-03 Democratic Primary Shows Wide Open Race

[Phoenix, December 5, 2023] – Recent polling conducted by Ansari campaign pollster Joshua Ulibarri of Lake Research Partners shows that among likely Democratic primary voters in Arizona’s 3rd congressional district that this primary race is wide open. The data reveals the race is tied (Vice Mayor Yassamin Ansari with 24% and Raquel Terán with 23%). Primary voters know each of the candidates equally, and that when voters hear equal positive profiling about each of the candidates, Ansari pulls into a lead (Ansari with 39% and Terán with 31%). If Ansari is able to continue outraising her opponents, this will translate into a superior voter outreach operation, and she can win the primary and become the Democratic nominee for AZ-03.

“Contrary to some insider narratives, there is no existing name recognition advantage in this race right now – voters are just as familiar with Vice Mayor Ansari as they are with Terán, if not more so,” said Joshua Ulibarri. “And in fact, when voters hear balanced positive profiles from each candidate, the Vice Mayor pulls ahead with an 8 point lead. While it’s still early, the Vice Mayor’s substantial resource advantage – coupled with this data and her hard work ethic – puts her in an incredibly strong position going into election year,” Ulibarri added.

Methodology – See attached Poll Memo

Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey. It was conducted using text-to-online from October 26 – November 5, 2023. The survey reached a total of 400 likely August 2024 Democratic primary voters in AZ-03. Telephone numbers for the sample were generated from a list of likely voters in Arizona. The data were weighted slightly. The margin of error for the total sample for the survey is +/–4.9% and larger for the sub-groups and split sample questions. Racial demographics of the likely voters reached is 42 percent Latino/Hispanic, 41 percent White/Caucasian, 13 percent Black/African-American and 4 percent other, which mirror the demographics of the likely primary turnout for AZ-03.

Background

The daughter of immigrants, Yassamin Ansari has delivered for the community as a Councilwoman and Vice Mayor, and now she is running to do the same in Congress. Vice Mayor Ansari has fought for higher wages and good jobs, stood up to the GOP to protect reproductive rights and expand affordable college, and to keep guns off our streets. She led the effort to allow casitas, helping to make housing more affordable, and expanded resources to reduce homelessness. She is a generational leader on climate change, serving at the United Nations, passing Phoenix’s first Climate Action Plan, and creating the first in our nation, Office of Heat Response and Mitigation.

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